Short Stories

Happy Christmas from Data Explorers

Happy Christmas from Data Explorers, our chief technology officer, Leonard Welter, will be back next week with more blog updates.

Yours

The Data Explorers team.

How will Christmas affect Semi - conductors?

Today we are going to talk about semi-conductors, because computers, mobile phones, digital audio players among others, could all be affected by Christmas trading.

Starting with Intel (INTC), which has 1% of its shares outstanding on loan (%SOOL), up from 0.6% in mid-November. Utilisation is at 4.3%. Intel’s share price has dropped in the last three months, from $20 in September to $16 now, and up from $12 in late November.

 

Analog (ADI) have 2.2% SOOL, down from 6% earlier this month. As you can see from this chart, there was a large spike in the amount of SOOL in late November, from 1% to 6%. Utilisation followed a similar pattern and is now at 5%. The company’s share price has fallen from $28 in September to $20 now, but up from $16 since early December.

 

In the DAX, Infineon Technologies (IFX) have 11% SOOL, up from 8% in early December but down from 13% in the last week. Utilisation is at 50%, down from 58% last week but up from 30% in mid-November. The company’s share price has fallen from 6EUR in September to 0.8EUR now.

 

In the Nikkei 225, Sony Corp (6758) has 1.5% SOOL, down from nearly 3% in September. Utilisation is at 12%. The company’s share price has fallen from 3,700JPY in September to 2,000JPY now.

 

Consumer Apparel sees short positions covered

Today we are going to talk about the consumer apparel sector, which will naturally have an effect on the Christmas period.

Starting with DRAX (DRX), which has seen some short covering; down from 9% of its shares outstanding on loan (%SOOL) in September to 3% now. The company’s share price has also fallen, from 800p to 500p in the same timeframe. Utilisation is at 10%, down from 35% in August.

 

Escada (ESC) has also seen a wide amount of short covering as well as a fall in share price, down from 6% SOOL in July to 2% now, with a fall in price from 14EUR to 4EUR now. Utilisation is at 30%.

 

Nike (NKE) have 5% SOOL, down from 9% in October. The share price has fallen from $67 in October to $50 now. Utilisation is at 21%.

 

Finally Hermes, who have also seen a significant amount of short covering, down from 11% in June to 7% now, but up from 4% in December. The share price has risen over the last year; from 60EUR in January, to 104EUR now. Utilisation is at 66%.

 

How will food stocks perform this Christmas?

In the quest for more Christmas related stock stories, we are covering food companies today, starting with Premier Foods (PFD), who have 7.23% of their shares outstanding on loan (%SOOL). This is an increase; from 5% in October, but down from nearly 8% in July and down again from 8.1% over the last fortnight. Utilisation is at 16.77%. PFD’s share price has fallen from 100p in August to around 23p now, however there has been a recent increase in its share price in the last week, up from 19p which could explain the covering of short positions.

Hershey Co (HSY) have 4% SOOL, down from 9% in the spring of this year. Utilisation is at 32.78%, down from 60% at the beginning of this year. Hershey’s share price has fallen from $55 in June to $35 now.

In Europe, Groupe Danone (BN) have 6.58% SOOL, up from 5% in June. The company’s share price has fallen from 63EUR in January to around 42EUR. Utilisation is at 25%.

 

Cadbury (CRBY), who had an earnings release yesterday, has 1.3% SOOL, down from 6% in early October. The company’s share price has fallen from 650p in September to 450p in mid-October, and back up to 570p now 

 

Short interest low in Alcohol-related stocks

Continuing our trend on stocks and sectors which may be affected by Christmas, we are going to talk about Alcohol-related stocks

 

Starting with Diageo (DGE), which has a small percentage of shares outstanding on loan (%SOOL) at 0.92%, and as you can see from this graph, the only time this figure has increased is for dividend arbitrage reasons. Utilisation is at 4.24%. Diageo’s share price has ebbed and flowed between 800p to 1,100p in the last six months, currently at 940p.

 

 

Asahi (2502), who have an Earnings Release on Friday, has 1.67% of its SOOL, down from 5% in June when Utilisation was at 35% (it is now at 1.67%). Asahi’s share price has dropped from 2,000JPY in July and August to 1,600 JPY now.

 

 

Pernod Ricard (RI) has 9.85% of its SOOL, up from 6% in August and down after a dividend yield from 12% in mid-November. Utilisation is at 43%. Pernod’s share price has fallen from 68EUR in September to 49EUR now.

 

 

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ABI) has seen a significant rise in short interest, up from 2% in June to 9% now. Utilisation is at 55%. The company’s share price has halved; from 30EUR in September and since the merger to 15EUR now.

 

 

Finally, Constellation Brands (STZ) has seen a significant amount of short covering, down from 9% in July to 3% now. The company’s share price has also fallen from $23 to $15 now, up from $12 in mid-November.

 

 

Will banks see a rise in short interest?

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and UBS stocks could have an impact on Christmas spending, given the current earnings pressure on bonuses this might reduce spending across global capitals but the immediate effect will probably not be transparent. 

Starting with Goldman, which has 1.57% of its shares outstanding on loan (%SOOL), down from 10% in the summer, an all-time high for the bank. Utilisation is at 7%. The share price has fallen from $250 in July to $71 now. 

Morgan Stanley has 3.35% SOOL, down from 7.7% in July. Utilisation is at 18.13%. The company’s share price has fallen from $45 in August to $12 now. 

 

Credit Suisse has 2.65%, down from 4% in June. Utilisation is at 10% and the company’s share price has halved in value, from nearly 60CHF in September to $30 now. 

UBS has seen relatively little activity, with the %SOOL at 1.4%, a figure that has remained virtually the same for the past three months. The big spike was in June, up from 3% to nearly 10% in the space of four weeks. The bank’s share price has fallen from 50 to 15CHF in the last year. 

 

Short Covering in the FTSE 250

Selected retailers, and particularly those in the FTSE 250; were higher yesterday after the latest investment views from the banking group Goldman Sachs and a pleasing update from Game Group.

HMV currently has 26.92% of its shares outstanding on loan(%SOOL), down from 37% in September, as you will see from this graph. Utilisation is currently at 71%. The Lendable Quantity of the stock has also decreased from 165M to 130M in the same timeframe which could mean that either agent lenders are withdrawing their stock from lending portfolios, or they are selling their stock.

 

Elsewhere in the FTSE 250, DSG (DSGI), the owner of Currys and PC World, has 23% SOOL, but again this stock has seen some short covering, from 32% in July to 23% now. The share price has fallen from 70p in September to 10p now. Utilisation is at 51%.

JD Wetherspoon (JDW) has also seen short positions being decreased, down from 18% SOOL to 16% between September and now. Prior to that, the SOOL increased from 10% in June. Utilisation is at 62%.

Carphone Warehouse (CPW) has 6% SOOL, down a significant amount from 14% in June. Utilisation is at 61%, up from 40% in October but down from nearly 80% during the summer.

 

Short interest low in GAP as sales release announced tomorrow

GAP's (GPS) sales release is announced tomorrow, and it is clear to see from this graph that short positions in this stock have decreased in the last three months; down from 4.5% of its shares outstanding on loan (SOOL) to 1.78% now. The share price has also declined; from $20 in September to $13 now.

 

Elsewhere in the American retail sector, Tiffany & Co (TIF) has a larger amount of short interest, with 10% SOOL, down from 14% in August, however an increase from 8% in June. Utilisation is at 34%, up from 25% in October. Tiffany's share price has fallen over the last six months from $47 in June to $17 now.

Target (TGT), the general merchandise and food discount store, has 5% SOOL in August, a three-year high aside a dividend trade the year before. Since August the figure has ebbed and flowed around the 3% to 4.7% mark, so short interest has not been significant. Target's share price has fallen since the summer, from $57 in September to $30 now.

Saks, who were mentioned earlier this week, now have lightly less %SOOL, down from 15.8% to 14.2% since the end of last week. Utilisation is at 64%. Over the past year Saks' share price has fallen from $20 to $5, even though the %SOOL has decreased in general from around 24% in December 2007 to 15% now.

Exxon's short postion increases amid fall in oil price

Energy companies will no doubt come under the spotlight over the next week, as it was reported this morning that oil slipped to under $50 a barrel. Exxon Mobil, the largest company in the world by Market Cap, currently has 0.88% of its shares outstanding on loan, with Utilisation at 4.08%. This is an increase from 0.2% in September, even though the stock opened up 2.5% today. The price has remained around the $80 a share mark for the past three months, despite a trough down to $65 in mid-October.

Exxon Mobil

 

Total Sa has 10% SOOL, having peaked at dividend trading at 20% ten days ago, with Utilisation at 30% now. The stock is up 3.2% today, even though short interest is relatively high. The share price has fallen in the last three months from around 50EUR to 43EUR.

BP has 1.4% SOOL, down from 2.2% in late October. Utilisation is at 4.5%, down from 7% in the same timeframe, so some short covering has occurred in this stock which was also up around 3% today. Like Exxon, BP's share price is the same as three months ago with a decrease in between; falling from 530p in August to 350p in late October, and back up to approximately 530p now.

Petro-Canada has 1.19% SOOL, up from 0.75% on November 18th. Utilisation is just under 2.4%. Petro-Canada's share price has fallen from $46 CAD in August to $34 CAD now, although this has risen from $20 CAD on November 20th.

Short Covering in American Dairy

American Dairy (ADY) announces its earnings results today. There has been some short covering in this stock; down from 5% of its shares outstanding on loan (%SOOL) in January to 2.2% now. Utilisation is at 40%. However, the share price was down 7% yesterday so it will be interesting to see what happens during the rest of the week.

In the rest of the American Food sector, National Beverage Corp (FIZZ) has 0.9% of its SOOL, Pepsico (PEP) Inc has 0.5%, and Coca Cola (KO) has 1.1% which means that American Dairy has a significantly large amount of its SOOL.

In Europe, Groupe Danone (BN) is the third most borrowed stock in the sector with 8.42% SOOL, after Nestle Sa (NESN) at 17.58% and Pernod Ricard (RI) at 9.89%. There has been some short covering in Nestle, down from 22%, but this is still a considerable amount.

Please see this chart of Nestle below.