Webcounter

  • webcounter
  • Webcounter

Powered by Typepad

Blog powered by TypePad
Member since 06/2007

« September 2007 | Main | November 2007 »

October 31, 2007

Deutsche Q3 Results

Deutsche Bank seems to be weathering the global financial crisis well, posting stronger third quarter net profits despite the US mortgage meltdown.  Utilisation levels (percentage of stock out on loan) for Deutsche Bank are currently below the market average for its index and sector.  Data indicates that traders had not built up unusual short positions in the build up to the results, despite turbulent times for the banks.

Deutsche_2

Qwest Communications: the 16th most borrowed stock in the S&P 500

Qwest Communications, the US provider of voice, video and data services which announced Q3 earnings yesterday has been the focus of attention for short-sellers for a long time.  Qwest_2 In January 2007, the percentage of market cap on loan rose to 18% when the share price was $15.7.  The percentage of stock on loan has stayed fairly stable between 16% and 20% before rising in August to 22%.  From a short-sellers' perspective, the rising share price between December 2006 and May 2007 caused considerable pain but the bears in this stock did not run for the hills and held their nerve (and financed their positions) to ultimately benefit from yest erday's 13.5% fall in the share price.  The stock closed at $7.08 last night.

October 30, 2007

Golden Star sees it shares on loan double.

Golden Star Resources Ltd announces pricing of $125 million convertible senior unsecured debentures.  Golden Star is an international gold mining and exploration company producing gold in Ghana, West Africa.  Utilisation (percentage of available stock on loan) is currently 61%, up from 30% a week ago.  This is a sharp rise in total on loan as the borrowers increase their short positions.  The current MCap on loan is 10%, and the share price is 3.50 CAD.

Golden

October 29, 2007

Apartment Investment and Management – Short Interest

Apartment Investment and Management (AIV), REIT, engages in the acquisition, ownership, management, and redevelopment of apartment properties. AIV traded down last week to a low of 44.00 ahead of this weeks third quarter results. (2nd November)

Aiv

This has spiked short investors interest, with utilisation moving up sharply from 20% to a high of 29.8% on Wednesday the 28th. AIV trading in the embattled North American Real Estate sector joins a list of favourites for short sellers in this sector. AIV went through its sector utilisation in mid-September, and currently has a market cap on loan (MCOL) of 11.41 %Aiv2

October 26, 2007

Takeover Talks: Scottish & Newcastle

Carlsberg_3 Scottish & Newcastle Plc, Britain's largest brewer, has rejected a 6.8 billion-pound takeover bid from Carlsberg A/S and Heineken NV.

The proposal is worth 720 pence per share, six percent below S&N's closing price on Oct. 24 but thirteen percent higher than the price on Oct. 16, the day before the U.K. company said it had been approached.

Carlsberg's shares traded down on the news of the takeover from EUR760.00 to a low on Thursday of EUR 675.00.  Meanwhile traders pushed the price of Scottish & Newcastle above Carlsberg's bid price of 720.00, possibly expecting a higher counter offer.  Utilisation levels in Carlsberg rose from 15.4% before the proposed deal was announced to 30% today.

Demand to borrow stock was strong between 16th October and 23rd October, but some of this demand may have been caused by Prime Brokers 'icing' stock or pre-borrowing it, in anticipation of a bidding battle.  Utilisation levels rose from 10% to 16% between 17th and 23rd October, representing 2.8% of the market cap. On news of S&N’s rejection of the bid, utilisation levels fell and currently stand at 6.5% or 1.76% of the market cap. 

Institutional investors who lend stock have been taking profits since the proposed bid was announced on 16th October, reducing the available supply of stock to borrow from 235m shares to 212m shares on 24th October.  The share price is currently 763p.

October 24, 2007

What has been going on in Rank?

Rank has been the focus of much speculation over recent weeks, with rumours circulating of stake-building by an Asian gambling company.  Rnk Since the profit warning two weeks ago however, borrowers have been increasing their positions in the stock, as the percentage of stock on loan has risen from 11.8% on 8th October to 16% on 22nd October.   The share price is currently 99.75p.

October 23, 2007

Stock Lending in Fimalac (owner of Fitch Ratings)

Fimalac, the owner of Fitch Ratings, continues to be the target of stock borrowers.  Fimalac Utilisation has jumped from 30% of available supply on 13 September to 69.22% today.  This equates to 2.77% of the market cap.  Prime Brokers are sourcing the borrow from outside the mainstream global custodians and direct lenders, as evinced by the fact that the value on loan ($76.06m is over twice as high as the lendable value ($32.65m).  The company has recently presented a strong defence of the role of the rating agencies in the credit markets.  The share price is currently €55.81.

October 22, 2007

Large new borrow in Carillion

Carillion, the UK-based building and industrial services company has seen borrowing in its stock jump sharply over the last two days.  Clln_2 Between 16th October and 18th October, utilisation has moved from 15.56% of supply to 35.38%.   % Market cap on loan has risen from 4.82% to 9.59% over the same time period.  This rapid increase in stock on loan is not dividend-related and means that the percentage of stock on loan is at its highest level of the last two years.  The share price is currently £3.82

October 19, 2007

Rising demand to borrow Fast Retailing in Japan

According to their website, Fast Retailing Co Ltd "is a group of companies that is willing to stand up and challenge the old existing bonds with strong conviction and high ambition in order to realize an even better world."  Traders seem to be doubting the success of this strategy, based on the rising percentage of market cap on loan.  The percentage of market cap on loan has risen from 0.5% in January 2007 to Fast_retailing 3.59% today.

October 18, 2007

Short positions closed out in Fortress Investment Group

Stock borrowers in Fortress Investment Group have returned substantial quantities of stock over the last two months.  Fortress_investment_group After reaching an all-time high of 2.9% of the market cap on loan in August, the most recent data shows only 1.65% of the market cap on loan.  Fees to borrow the stock have also fallen fast, down to a volume weighted average fee of 513bps on an annualised basis.  Stock borrowing in this stock shows a high level of inverse correlation with the share price.   Utilisation levels remain high at 79.06%, mainly because lendable as a % of market cap is only 1.23%.  Because the value on loan is greater than the notional lendable maximum, this suggests that Prime Brokers have sourced the borrow in Fortress from funds outside of the mainstream global custodians.